Can We Exhale Now?

I know we all sort of pooh-poohed the prediction by UCLA professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok that an earthquake would hit east of L.A. before Sept. 5.

But admit it: You sort of thought it might be true. And in a weird way, wanted it to be true. After all, even a vague idea of when a tremblor might hit is better than no advance warning at all (well, other than dogs howling).

Maria and I had our house bolted a few weeks ago, and it wasn't cheap. We would have done it anyway, but Keilis-Borok's prediction helped convince me that we oughta make sure our house doesn't fall off its foundation.

But now that Sept. 5 has come and gone, was the professor horribly off? Or could his prediction still come true, albeit late?

Writes the L.A. Times:

For years, seismologists have sought some method for predicting temblors. After Keilis-Borok predicted — albeit in a general way — the Paso Robles quake last December and one in Japan a year ago, his method had captured the imagination of many skeptics.

Now it appears to be just one more in a long line of prediction methods that haven't worked reliably — to the disappointment of many.

"It's a little less promising than it looked six months ago," conceded John Vidale, a UCLA professor of geophysics and interim director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Like many other scientists, Vidale was hoping the ground would shake. He even bet another UCLA seismologist, David Jackson, $10 that the latest prediction would come true.